Saturday, January 21 2017 - RECAP

                                   NCAAB

Providence +17: (44-10, 8-0)

Tulsa -6: (67-26, 1-2)
Ball St -2.5: (67-26, 1-2)
College Charleston -7.5: (37-10, 5-1)
Appalachian St +8: (68-25, 5-1)
Citadel +13: (58-15, 4-3)
So Carolina/Kentucky UNDER 148: (70-28, 5-2)
Marist +9.5: (68-25, 5-1)
Marist/Rider UNDER 149.5: (91-31, 31-12)
Murray St -4.5: (73-27, 4-1) (41-19, 4-3)
Montana -6: (96-37, 6-3) (73-27, 4-1)
Oregon -14.5: (64-24, 1-1)

Current Record: 99-70 (+26.50)

                                   NBA
Brooklyn +12: (32-17, 2-2)
Brooklyn/Charlotte UNDER 221: (34-14, 3-1) (53-24, 9-6)
New York -5.5: (79-34, 3-5)
Phoenix/New York OVER 222.5: (58-24, 9-7)
Houston -1: (72-26, 3-0) (84-25, 2-0)
Washington/Detroit UNDER 208: (33-9, 5-1)


Current Record: 175-169 (+5.25)

Blog Record: 54-60 (-10.35)
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I'm still trying to figure out how on earth we didn't have a winning day. The only NCAA game I want to talk about is that Marist/Rider UNDER.  The other 11 games the results were deserved, but this one made me want to puke. It was our vaunted pace play, one that has been spectacular to me all season. 149.5 was the number, and with 2:39 left the score is 70-62 Rider. 18 points beats us, and Marist is close to the number. Marist can't buy a bucket, and with 1:21 left - after fouling - Marist is down 77-62. They come down and get a bucket, then foul again. The side is lost, let's get the Under and move on.

So here's the situation. With 58 seconds Marist fouls down 13, which is fine because thats what college kids do.  They foul until the bitter end. I'm figuring, after the foul shots if they don't score they'll call it a day. Its 81-66 after the 2 FTs. They go down, miss another shot, and decide to not foul. Perfect. Rider is going to run clock and do whatever. Well, whatever turned into a 3PT Fg with 20 seconds left.  That gave Rider their 82, 83, and 84th point making the final 84-66. I'll help with the math, that equals 150. The day started off so well, 6-1 at one point only to lose the last 5 including this one. 7-5 sounds so much better. Nope. Scoreboard says 6-6.

Which brings me to the Phoenix/New York game. Houston a no doubt winner, Brooklyn and the Under both wins. Lost the Wash/Det Under, and the Knicks losing doesn't bother me either.  They had their chances and blew it. What was incredible is how these 2 teams manage to score 180 points after 3 periods, yeah that's right, they averaged 60 points per quarter. They only scored 32 in the 4th, 15 after 6 minutes and proceeded to continue tossing up bricks and turn the ball over. But it gets better.

Knicks down 2 with the ball and 35 seconds or so left. Rose drives, gets pushed in the back and gets a no call as he misses the layup.  Phoenix comes down and misses, so with 6 seconds left NY has a chance to send it into OT. Carmelo gets the inbounds and launches a 25 foot 3 Pointer that rims out, which didn't matter because if it goes in they win by 1 and no OT.  4-2 turns into 3-3. With any luck, just a pinch of luck, we're 11-7 overall for a solid winning day. Nope. Take your 9-9 and juice loss and come back tomorrow.

Had to vent a little folks, I really thought today was going to be a nice day just like last Saturday. However, we just couldn't catch a break on those 2 games. Tough losses to be sure, and it won't be the last time. You've got to be able to shake them off and move on.

A good friend of mine, who also wagers on sports, asked me how do I deal with tough beats and rough stretches. I give him the same answers every time. First you have to believe in what you do, trust the process and methodology.  I am a winning player, but that doesn't mean I win every day or every week. I know that at the end of the season I will usually show a profit. You also have to be able to quickly forget tough beats and losing days.  Its similar to a great NBA shooter missing shot after shot, sooner or later the shots will fall. He doesn't stop shooting. For me, sooner or later the games will win more often than not. Its absolutely frustrating when you go thru tough stretches, but it really tests your mettle. 

Ok, about that situation that is now 9-0 after Providence covered today. My buddy in Florida loves that angle, and told me that he sprinkled some on the ML the last time. It was the Georgia St game from Monday. I said it covers over 80% of the time, but wins the game only 30%. You would need to average around +335 to break even. Then it hit me.......hey genius, we're talking about mainly DD dogs here.  Of course they will be at least that price, so I did a little research to find out just what kind of prices these dogs paid on the ML.  Get a load of this.

2016: 9-0 ATS (+9.00)

           4-5 ML  (+25.84) Wins: +341, +1432, +907, +429

2015: 14-4-1 ATS (+17.8)

           5-14 ML     (+25.59) +1500 NCAA Tourney Mid Tenn ST, +1000, +397, +709, +423.  The last 3 were ON THE SAME DAY. 

2014: 5-1 ATS (+3.95)

           1-5 ML (+.12) +537

2013: 6-2 ATS (+3.9)

           2-6 ML (+5.59) +674, +515

2012: 1-2 ATS (-1.1)

           0-3 ML (-3.15)

2011: 6-0 ATS (+6.0)

          3-3 ML (+6.95)

2010: 4-1 ATS: (+2.95)

          2-3 ML: Database I checked didn't go back this far, but safe to say they were around +500 putting it at around (+9.85)

Most years its more profitable, and some years a lot more, playing these huge dogs on the ML. It never occurred to me how good this was until my buddy mentioned he sprinkled some on the ML the other day. Obviously, this will be added when this play comes up again.

I'll be back later with the plays for Sunday.  Today I had more views than any day since I started, so to each of you my sincere thanks for dropping by and trusting in what I do. I know many of you wager on some or most of the plays, I wager on all of them, so I feel a heightened sense of responsibility to do the very best I can. Tossing the NHL the hoops are around break even or a very small deficit, nothing we can't over come. See you all tomorrow.