Saturday 1/14
Seattle +6 (-125)
Atlanta has been hammered in the betting from the jump, and the "sharps" reportedly have been on them too. And why not? Atlanta nearly beat Seattle on the road earlier this year, with a questionable non-call on a PI perhaps being the difference. Now I know all about Seattle's struggles on the road, and not having Earl Thomas makes a difference. But I don't like laying this many points in a playoff game with a defense that is statistically the worst in the playoffs. I will buy the point and make it +6 Seattle. Atlanta 27-24.
Houston +16 (2U)/UNDER 44.5:
Houston visited New England early in the year and got hammered on a Week 3 Thursday night by a 3rd string QB. It was their 1st road game, traveling on a short week after starting with two at home. So how can the Texans possibly hang with them facing Tom Brady?? I have always been a defense first guy, and both of these teams bring outstanding defenses into this game. I think this line is inflated due in part to the first meeting. With a total set at 44, this figures to be a relatively low scoring game. The weather should be nasty with a late Saturday evening kickoff.
Look, Brock Osweiler sucks. But he does have a solid running back in Lamar Miller, and has some weapons to throw to namely Deandre Hopkins and their emerging TE CJ Fiedorowicz. Will Fuller can also make some plays on the outside. Over the last 9 meaningful games - I exclude week 17 - they have not allowed more than 21 points but for one time. That was the Oakland game in Mexico, a game they controlled except for a busted coverage and some sketchy calls. This defensive front is one of the better ones in football.
I think Houston can score 13 or so, which means NE would need 30 to beat us. I think this game will be low scoring, which makes 2+ TDS look good. I'm thinking somewhere around a 27-13 win for New England, which makes Houston and the Under the play. Houston a Top Play 2U pick.
Pittsburgh/Kansas City UNDER 44.5
I originally was going to pass this game, but with a huge storm expected that day they have moved the game to the evening. Pittsburgh is a different team on the road, not scoring nearly as much away from Heinz Field. Also the Pittsburgh defense has played much better over the second half of the season allowing less than 17pts/gm. Kansas City has been very stingy at Arrowhead, and their coach is pretty conservative. I expect a low scoring game decided by a FG. I don't know which team wins, but I do believe we get a low scoring game. I'm on the Under.
Dallas -4 (-115)Green Bay/Dallas UNDER 52.5
I have a nice system play on the Under, 16-7 and 5-1 in playoff games. Dallas has also been an under team this year, combining a solid running game and a defense that allows 19 pts per game and only 83 yds /gm on the ground. I think Dallas makes GB one dimensional, we see a lot of Ezekiel Elliot, and hopefully the game grinds and the clock rolls. Aaron Rodgers is great, but without Jordy Nelson, a limited running game, and a fresh Dallas team I think the GB season ends in Dallas. Let's play Dallas and the Under. Final score something like 27-20.
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