SUPER BOWL 2017: Game Picks/Prop Bets

Last year I nailed the Super Bowl, even suggesting a wager on Miller as MVP. You can read that analysis here.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1045441&highlight=super+bowl

                                         Super Bowl

New England -3

- This game reminds me of last year's game.  We have a top rated defense going up against a top rated offense. These matches usually go to the defense. I wrote extensively about these types of matchups last year. I can't endorse a team with the poorer defense. I really want to believe Atlanta will beat them, and for a portion of the week I have thought just that. I have a playoff system that is 14-0 and it points to Atlanta. But New England has the top rated defense, and despite the fact they have played "mediocre" offenses you can't dispute the numbers. I'm not in love with it, but I'll lay the 3 points. A very small wager. 

Atlanta/New England UNDER 58

- I've been going back and forth on this wager, but looking at the team props may give us a clue.  There are various wagers associated with the combined number of touchdowns in the game. 6 TDs has the Over set at -215, but for 7 TDs the Under is the play that is juiced at -135 compared to +100 for Over 7. Same with the team TD totals. New England total TDs is set at 3.5, with the Under juiced at -120 and the Over -110.  Same with Atlanta total Tds set at 3.5 juiced at -160 Under and +120 Over. It makes sense that the dog will be juiced a bit more, but with all 3 of these wagers juiced towards the Under, that tells me that the Under is the play. Reportedly the books have taken quite a bit of sharp action on the Under also. Lets take UNDER 58 for the game total.

Blount OVER 14.5 Rush Attempts (-115)

- Atlanta with a porous defense, NE should be leading late. Blount has averaged more than 14.5 att in 9 of his last 12 games. 

Blount OVER 59.5 yds rushing (-105)

- Atl has allowed over 100 yards rushing in 8 of their last 9 games. 

Lewis OVER 9.5 Rush Attempts (-105)

- Lewis has gone over this amount 4 out of his last 5 games.

Lewis UNDER 2.5 receptions (+120)

- He hasn't caught more than 2 in his last 5 games. 

Lewis UNDER 23.5 rec yds (+100)

- Hasn't got that in his last 6 games

Freeman OVER 3.5 receptions (-180)

- In competitive games Freeman catches at least 4 balls. 

Freeman OVER 34.5 Rec yds (-115)

- When he catches this many he usually goes over this number, especially on a fast track

First TD: Sanu 10/1, M. Bennett 14/1

- If Atlanta scores first, lets take a shot with Mohammed Sanu.  He's a big target that is great inside the 20. I've liked this guy since his Rutgers days. Nice value here.

Atlanta was the 5th worst team in fantasy points allowed to TEs. They also allowed 10 TDs to them, tied for 3rd worst. Brady likes his TEs, nice value on MB at 14/1. 

Most Rushing Yds from Blount +150,Lewis +300,Coleman +350, Freeman +140: 

I'll take Blount at +150

MVP: Blount 20/1

- If New England wins its probably Brady but do you really want to lay -118? What fun is that.  Last year I suggested a wager on both CJ Anderson and Von Miller. If Blount can run through a porous Atlanta defense and has a big day, its worth a shot at 20/1. You can always take Brady as a saver if you want to. 

Lets hope we have a close, entertaining game. Enjoy your food and drinks, enjoy time spent with friends and family. I always play these prop bets small, its more for fun than anything. Have a great day everyone, and good luck with your action