Sunday, January 15 2017 RECAP

                                       NCAAB
Siena +1: (63-24, 4-3)
Colorado -3.5: (90-46, 2-1)

Current Record: 88-56 (+30.20)

                                      NBA
Detroit -1.5 (61-22, 1-0)
Detroit/LA UNDER 213: (21-6, 1-0)
Houston -13: (62-32, 7-6)
Minnesota +1.5: (47-22, 2-4)
Minnesota/Dallas OVER 196: (40-27, 5-1)
Chicago/Memphis UNDER 192: (42-18, 5-2)

Current Record: 167-159 (+7.75)

                                       NFL
Pittsburgh/Kansas City UNDER 44.5
Dallas -4 (-115)Green Bay/Dallas UNDER 52.5

Blog Record: 30-28 (-.85)
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Split out the entire hoops day, not much to say about those games. Minn/Dal scored 100+ in the 1H, and didn't come close to that in the 2nd half. Chi/Mem had about 50 points with 8 minutes left in the half, then for the next 8 minutes they scored almost 50. That scoring continued into the 2H, so not much to say.  

As for the NFL, I bet on a rookie QB going against Aaron Rodgers. Shame on me, as once again Rodgers showed how great he truly is. When it comes to throwing the football, I don't know if there are many QBs in the history of the game as good as he is. It comes off his hand so pure, it is just beautiful to watch. Not only can he make every throw in the book, he can do so in any situation. Just look at how many times he throws off the back foot, off the wrong foot, on the run, rolling to his right, or rolling to his left. That throw he made to put them in game winning FG position is a throw only a handful of QBs could make. Rolling to the opposite side, under pressure, on the run he throws a 35 yd dart to the sideline right on the money. He made several throws today that were incredible. 

I did have a good read on the late game, finally hitting one.  A low scoring, hard hitting game that was never in doubt for the under.  That is my kind of game.  I love cold weather, hard hitting football. I grew up watching that in the 70's, many classic playoff games played in the cold.  Just something about seeing the cold air coming out of the players facemasks. 

A small losing week after a promising start.  The difference was the 4 unit swing with the Texans and that gawd awful NHL Saturday night. If Winnipeg holds on and Houston doesn't give away that cover, that is about a 6.8 unit swing. We sure didn't catch a break with that Under Saturday night either. Turns a small loss into a 6 or 8 unit win for the week. Sometimes thats all it takes. This week we couldn't catch a break with those games, at some point we will. 

For those that followed every game, don't get discouraged.  A break or 2 gets us a very nice week. If you followed just the NCAAB you had a solid week. The NBA was pretty flat this week, that does happen and I'm not worried about it at all. The NHL was not good, no getting around that.  The NFL a disappointment with the tough Saturday night loss. 

Tomorrow starts a new week.  I'll have everything posted early, there are some games that start around 9am PST so I'll get up early and get those out if we have any plays in those games.  Thanks so much to everyone that took the time to visit this week. I'll see you tomorrow.

Sunday, January 15 2017 - Hoops/NFL

                                      NCAAB
Siena +1: (63-24, 4-3)
- RD, Poor ATS vs Good ATS
Colorado -3.5: (90-46, 2-1)
- HF that scored a lot last game, 2 avg defenses

                                      NBA
Detroit -1.5 (61-22, 1-0)
- Fading a HD on a BTB, 3rd in 4 days
Detroit/LA UNDER 213: (21-6, 1-0)
- High total, Home off DD loss in Div- 
Houston -13: (62-32, 7-6)
- Good RF that just lost at home
Minnesota +1.5: (47-22, 2-4)
- Decent RD on a win streak
Minnesota/Dallas OVER 196: (40-27, 5-1)
- same reasoning. Side/Total combo play
Chicago/Memphis UNDER 192: (42-18, 5-2)
- Home team that won as RD trailing after each qtr

                                      NFL
These are the write-ups from my NFL DIV RD post a few days ago:

Pittsburgh/Kansas City UNDER 44.5
I originally was going to pass this game, but with a huge storm expected that day they have moved the game to the evening. Pittsburgh is a different team on the road, not scoring nearly as much away from Heinz Field. Also the Pittsburgh defense has played much better over the second half of the season allowing less than 17pts/gm. Kansas City has been very stingy at Arrowhead, and their coach is pretty conservative.  I expect a low scoring game decided by a FG. I don't know which team wins, but I do believe we get a low scoring game. I'm on the Under.


Dallas -4 (-115)Green Bay/Dallas UNDER 52.5
I have a nice system play on the Under, 16-7 and 5-1 in playoff games. Dallas has also been an under team this year, combining a solid running game and a defense that allows 19 pts per game and only 83 yds /gm on the ground. I think Dallas makes GB one dimensional, we see a lot of Ezekiel Elliot, and hopefully the game grinds and the clock rolls.  Aaron Rodgers is great, but without Jordy Nelson, a limited running game, and a fresh Dallas team I think the GB season ends in Dallas. Let's play Dallas and the Under. Final score something like 27-20.
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I include the description after each play I post.  Do you find value in this? Do you care? Do you just care about the play? Please let me know in the comments section below, if anyone likes this then I will continue to do so. If you couldn't care less, I'll stop. I appreciate the feedback.

Over 100 views yesterday, thanks to everyone for stopping by. I know the NFL/NHL were disappointing to say the least, but the NCAAB was awesome. I have a good feeling about the NBA today, its due for a good day. Been a little underperforming so far. Same thing happened last year, then it got really hot over the last few months. That is documented in last year's NBA thread. 

Enjoy the games today, and as always good luck with your action. 

https://twitter.com/Biz112763 is my Twitter handle. I put a link on Twitter when the games are posted. You can always check my Twitter and link up here from that site also. 

Saturday, January 14 RECAP

                                 NCAAB
Dayton -11: (44-14, 2-1) 
New Mexico +3.5: (62-24, 3-3)
North Carolina -7.5: (89-45, 1-0)
North Texas +12.5: (50-13, 2-1) play up to 13.5
Syracuse -13: (63-24, 0-1)
IUPUI +3.5: (65-21, 3-2)
William & Mary +6: (65-21, 3-2)
Illinois -2.5: (89-45, 1-0)
Utah +2.5: (33-8, 1-0)
Georgia Southern/UL Lafayette UNDER 158: (96-36, 30-14)
Portland St -5: (94-36, 4-2) (72-27, 3-1)
UCLA/UTAH UNDER 165 (27-11, 2-2)
Nevada/Wyoming UNDER 165 (27-11, 2-2)
Hofstra/UNC Wilmington UNDER 165 (27-11, 2-2)

Current Record: 87-55 (+30.25)

                                  NBA
Los Angeles Lakers +11 (72-31, 1-0) (52-28, 8-6)
Lakers/Clippers UNDER 217 (33-14, 2-1)

Current Record: 164-156 (+7.90)

                                  NHL
New York Rangers +130 (23-14, 1-2)
Minnesota (-1.5) +271 (54-48, 2-0)
Winnipeg +173 (28-34, 3-2)
San Jose -169 (47-15, 2-1)
San Jose (-1.5) +183 (30-32, 2-1)

Current Record: 92-101 (+1.76)

                                  NFL
Seattle +6
Houston +16 (2U)
Houston/NE UNDER 44.5

Blog Record: 29-26 (+.55)

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I had a miserable headache last evening, so I'm a little late with the Recap so will make this relatively brief today. Not sure if its because of the lousy NHL or not, but man nothing is less fun that having a headache. A mixed bag yesterday, let's start with the NCAAB.  It continues to be on fire, just a spectacular day.  The pace play Under continues to click, and overall just phenomenal. 

NBA a split out, Lakers were never going to cover so a split is just fine.

The NHL was brutal. Rangers drop a close one, Minnesota jumps out to a 4-0 1P lead and give it up before scoring late for a 1 goal win which did nothing but piss me off. Kinda hoped they would lose after setting us up like that, right?? My  Sharks laid an egg, just a crap performance. So we were left with Winnipeg as big dogs to salvage the night on the ice. My phone beeps, I see they go up 2-1 late. I roll back over, hear another beep. LA scores, dammit.  They go on to lose in OT. Of course.

The NFL was ridiculous. Seattle I can live with, but the Houston game?  It played out a lot like I expected. Houston get me around 13?  They get me 16.  Hold New England to 27? They score 34, thanks to our friend Brock Osweiler.  Yes, I admitted he sucks, but why Oh why Bill O'Brien is he throwing the ball backed up on your 10 yd line down 1 score?  Run the bleeping ball. BO (perfect initials for this guy) overthrows Hopkins, deflected INT, and they score a TD. Now its a 15 point game and you just know at some point we will get a spread busting FG. Yup. But wait, we haver a chance at the backdoor. BO gets us in position only to throw another gawdawful pick. That UNDER and 2U dog were right there, but kick return TDS and multiple picks setting up short fields did us in for both wins. Enough whining, my mantra is scoreboard is scoreboard. I'll get a break like that in the future. But I just had to vent just a little.

OK, a losing day overall despite the torrid NCAAB. We are still showing a profit for the week despite losing a ton on the ice and gridiron, lets not forget the haul from NCAAB. I know some people only play certain sports, others play all of them. One thing I'm pretty sure of, EVERYONE should be playing hoops right now. Looks like a light day today, picks will be up shortly. Thanks for stopping by.

Saturday, January 14 2017

This will not be the full list of games. Several NBA games have no lines out, as do many of the smaller NCAAB games.  This is what I have so far for the NCAAB, listed in order of game start:

Dayton -11: (44-14, 2-1) If it drops below -11 NO PLAY
- fav that just shot poorly as a fav last game
New Mexico +3.5: (62-24, 3-3)
- poor ATS road dog vs a Good ATS team
North Carolina -7.5: (89-45, 1-0)
- HF that scored a lot last game
North Texas +12.5: (50-13, 2-1) play up to 13.5
- DD Road Dog that gave up a lot last game vs a team that plays a lot of high scoring games
Syracuse -13: (63-24, 0-1)
- fading a big dog on a ATS streak
IUPUI +3.5: (65-21, 3-2)
- road team that has given up a lot of points last 3 games vs a team that just won, Conf Game
William & Mary +6: (65-21, 3-2)
- same as IUPUI
Illinois -2.5: (89-45, 1-0) Must Be Fav
- same as UNC
Utah +2.5: (33-8, 1-0) Must Be Dog
- Home dog off a big win vs a team that has scored a lot recently
Georgia Southern/UL Lafayette UNDER 158: (96-36, 30-14)
- Our pace play you've seen several times this week
Portland St -5: (94-36, 4-2) (72-27, 3-1)
- Decent/Good Conf road fav playing a poor team that lost previous game
-Fading a poor conf Home Dog, that lost/didn't cover their prev game at home

I will post the NBA and NHL later in the morning after all lines are out. Many of these lines will change, I am listing the current lines as of now. 
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Here are the remainder of the plays today. 

                                 NCAAB
UCLA/UTAH UNDER 165 (27-11, 2-2)
Nevada/Wyoming UNDER 165 (27-11, 2-2)
Hofstra/UNC Wilmington UNDER 165 was a play, but it started right at the time I was posting so its a no play for the record. 

                                  NBA
Los Angeles Lakers +11 (72-31, 1-0) (52-28, 8-6)
Lakers/Clippers UNDER 217 (33-14, 2-1) 

                                  NHL
New York Rangers +130 (23-14, 1-2)
Minnesota (-1.5) +271 (54-48, 2-0)
Winnipeg +173 (28-34, 3-2)
San Jose -169 (47-15, 2-1)
San Jose (-1.5) +183 (30-32, 2-1)


Have a great day and Good Luck with your action. 

Friday, January 13 2017 RECAP

                                    NBA 1/13

Cleveland -6.5: (83-25, 1-0)

Miami +7.5: (37-10, 4-1)

Boston/Atlanta UNDER 211.5: (50-24, 6-6)

Charlotte/Philadelphia UNDER 209.5: (26-6, 3-2)

Current Record: 163-155 (+7.95)

                                     NCAAB

Rider -1: (67-24, 1-0)

Detroit +17.5: (42-10, 6-0)

Current Record: 77-52 (+23.40)

                                     NHL

Arizona +124: (49-23, 1-1)

Current Record: 92-96 (+7.45)

Blog Record: 18-14 (+3.64)

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We were a missed 5 foot jumper away from a 4-0 night in the NBA. Miami was losing by DD for most of the game, so you can't really call it a bad beat. But it was winnable at the end,  we just didn't get the bucket. The other 3 games were winners from the start. Cleveland jumped on Sacramento early, and although the Kings cut it to 10 several times it never really felt like the cover was in danger. The 2 UNDER plays had a solid Under pace throughout, we only had to sweat a potential OT in Atlanta after Boston blew a big lead late. 3-1 and no complaints, a solid night in the NBA.

How about Detroit Mercy? Mercy Mercy, how about a 18 point dog winning outright? It was 18 at tip and if anyone watched this game on ESPNU this game was never not going to cover. A well deserved win for a team that is really scuffling this year. Good for them. Rider had a 2-6 point lead for the entire game, only to lose the lead late.  They actually had a great shot at the end down 2 to send it to OT, as their best player got it down low. He couldn't make the shot and we took a tough loss. 1-1 and we move on.

Our struggling Home Dog did just what I thought they would do, minus the unexpected high score.  They were facing a team they could beat, and they handled their business.  Arizona jumped out to a 4-1 lead after 1 period and held on for a 4-3 win getting us a nice +124 price in the process.

You will find me on lots of dogs and -1.5 lines when it comes to baseball and hockey. Its not that I don't play favorites, I do play them. It just needs to be a high percentage situation. After New Jersey blew that lead last night, it was good to see us get a win tonight.  

So far this week we've picked up 3.64 units, nothing to sneeze at. Folks, I know lots of people advertise their 7-0 days, their 20-1 week, how they are up thousands in a matter of days. Maybe they are, maybe not. One thing you do know about my record, is that it is 100% accurate, 100% verified. I am someone you can trust. I put every game out there, well before game time.  I keep a daily record and recap daily EVERY GAME I wager on. I will have my days where I do crush it, I think it was a couple weeks ago I had a 6-0 NCAAB Saturday. I've done it in the NBA, MLB, NHL. Those days are rare for even the greatest handicappers, but when they happen it feels really good. We will have them.

A more realistic expectation is to grind out a unit or 2 a day, and if you can average just 1 unit a day that would be 365 units for the year. Doesn't sound like much does it, but if you are a $100/unit player that's over $36k.  And as your bankroll grows, so does your base unit. 

I will have all of the Saturday action up early Saturday, as I expect that I will have some early NCAAB games. On busy Saturdays I will often come across games later in the day as lines will change that turn a side or total into a play. If you subscribe to the Biz thread on the RX Forum, I will make a post about added plays. You will receive an email alerting you to a new post, and you can then come here to get the added plays. Of course, you can also just check in here from time to time also. Looking forward to tomorrow, and as always, I appreciate all of you coming here and making my time spent here worthwhile.

Friday, January 13 2017 Hoops/Hockey

                                           NBA 1/13

Cleveland -6.5: (83-25, 1-0)

Miami +7.5: (37-10, 4-1)

Boston/Atlanta UNDER 211.5: (50-24, 6-6)

Charlotte/Philadelphia UNDER 209.5: (26-6, 3-2)

                                     NCAAB

Rider -1: (67-24, 1-0)

Detroit +17.5: (42-10, 6-0)

                                     NHL

Arizona +124: (49-23, 1-1)

Tough couple nights but we are still over 50% overall and a small profit. 4 games on tap for the NBA, with Miami looking like the "best"play. Its actually a play against Milwaukee, a HF that just won as a RD and they didn't go to the foul line very much, playing a poor team tonight.  That keeps the line high enough for a nice cushion. Been very solid this year.  Detroit was a play, but with KCP out I'm electing to pass it. If they cover catching DD I'll live with that. Cavs are a good team coming off a bad loss. Let's hope we get the performance tonight I thought we were going to get the last game. The Boston game is a play on the UNDER with a  team coming in off 2 straight DD home wins, while their opponent has just played a couple games that were relatively high scoring. These games usually play lower than expected. And finally we have the Charlotte/Philly Under that involves 1 team giving up a lot of points in their prior 4 games playing a team that just won a close one. 

The NCAA continues to roll along with another winning night. As I mentioned last night, I didn't get alerts for 4 games that had 3 winners.  Not happy about that and I let someone know about it. I pay money for the service, dammit let me know when something is live. Ok, thats out of my system. Rider is a nice play as a favorite only.  The line flipped from dog to fav so make sure they remain a favorite. Detroit fits a very nice situation that has been money this year going 6-0 so far. We are playing against a high scoring big favorite that has played games recently that have been lower scoring than expected. Take the points.  2 games on the usual light schedule before a very busy Saturday.

Tonight we have 1 game on the ice, playing the Arizona Coyotes as a home dog. Playing a home dog that has lost 4 out of 5 playing a team that is below 50%. Its a chance for a team scuffling to pick up a win vs a team that is mediocre at best. Its a nice dog situation and I expect a low scoring home win. 

2 small losing days after a nice winning day keeps us barely in the black. Thanks for stopping by, have a great day, and good luck with your action.

Thursday, January 12 2017 RECAP

                                           NBA 1/12
New Orleans -4: (97-41, 2-1)
New Orleans/Brooklyn UNDER 217.5 (26-9, 2-1)
LA Lakers/San Antonio UNDER 212 (52-22, 0-2)

Current Record: 160-154 (+6.00)

                                            NCAAB 1/12
William & Mary/UNC Wilmington UNDER 162.5 (31-11, 2-1)
Delaware +10.5: (42-15, 0-1)
Drexel +10: (62-23, 3-2)
Wright St/Wisconsin GB UNDER 154 (95-36, 29-14)
Iowa +6: (60-29, 0-0)
Utah -5.5: (88-45, 0-0)
SMU +6: (102-48, 0-0)

Current Record: 76-51 (+23.45)

                                           NHL 1/12
Boston (-1.5) +266 (54-58, 2-0)
New Jersey +163 (36-21, 3-0)

Current Record: 91-96 (+6.21)

Blog Record: 13-12 (+.5)

Anthony Davis was a late scratch, so as suggested the play on New Orleans was a pass. We went 1-1 on the NBA totals for a push.

As for the NCAAB, how many of you were freaking out after that 0-3 start?  We went 4-0 on the later games, including that fantastic Under angle based on pace. A winning hoops day. I'll admit it, I was sweating just a little after the 0-3. Not the way you want to start a slate of games, but I really felt we would get at least 3 of the late gams and getting all 4 was just what we needed.

Unfortunately, the NHL let us down.  I made a comment yesterday about going 1-1 and making a profit if Boston lost and NJ won.  Sure enough Boston loses 2-1, and New Jersey is holding a 2-1 lead late 3rd period. They give up a goal on a scrum in front of the net and lose in OT. Tough way to end the night, and was the difference between a winning and losing night. 

A bit of a struggle the last 2 nights, but it happens. Nothing devastating, and for the week we are up a few bucks. Not every day is a walk through a strawberry patch, its a daily grind. Tomorrow is a new day. 

Last thing.  One of my sites that I run my systems on is not always on time with the NCAAB plays. Today it was late with 4 games that went 3-1. I wasn't happy after I just found this out. So, I would suggest you check back later in the afternoon if there are any NCAAB games that are added. 

I'll be back in the morning with Friday's action. 

NFL Division Round Jan 14/15 2017

                                                  Saturday 1/14
Seattle +6 (-125)
Atlanta has been hammered in the betting from the jump, and the "sharps" reportedly have been on them too. And why not?  Atlanta nearly beat Seattle on the road earlier this year, with a questionable non-call on a PI perhaps being the difference. Now I know all about Seattle's struggles on the road, and not having Earl Thomas makes a difference. But I don't like laying this many points in a playoff game with a defense that is statistically the worst in the playoffs. I will buy the point and make it +6 Seattle.  Atlanta 27-24.

Houston +16 (2U)/UNDER 44.5: 
Houston visited New England early in the year and got hammered on a Week 3 Thursday night by a 3rd string QB. It was their 1st road game, traveling on a short week after starting with two at home. So how can the Texans possibly hang with them facing Tom Brady??  I have always been a defense first guy, and both of these teams bring outstanding defenses into this game. I think this line is inflated due in part to the first meeting. With a total set at 44, this figures to be a relatively low scoring game. The weather should be nasty with a late Saturday evening kickoff. 

Look, Brock Osweiler sucks. But he does have a solid running back in Lamar Miller, and has some weapons to throw to namely Deandre Hopkins and their emerging TE CJ Fiedorowicz.  Will Fuller can also make some plays on the outside. Over the last 9 meaningful games - I exclude week 17 - they have not allowed more than 21 points but for one time.  That was the Oakland game in Mexico, a game they controlled except for a busted coverage and some sketchy calls. This defensive front is one of the better ones in football. 

I think Houston can score 13 or so, which means NE would need 30 to beat us. I think this game will be low scoring, which makes 2+ TDS look good. I'm thinking somewhere around a 27-13 win for New England, which makes Houston and the Under the play. Houston a Top Play 2U pick.

Pittsburgh/Kansas City UNDER 44.5
I originally was going to pass this game, but with a huge storm expected that day they have moved the game to the evening. Pittsburgh is a different team on the road, not scoring nearly as much away from Heinz Field. Also the Pittsburgh defense has played much better over the second half of the season allowing less than 17pts/gm. Kansas City has been very stingy at Arrowhead, and their coach is pretty conservative.  I expect a low scoring game decided by a FG. I don't know which team wins, but I do believe we get a low scoring game. I'm on the Under.


Dallas -4 (-115)Green Bay/Dallas UNDER 52.5
I have a nice system play on the Under, 16-7 and 5-1 in playoff games. Dallas has also been an under team this year, combining a solid running game and a defense that allows 19 pts per game and only 83 yds /gm on the ground. I think Dallas makes GB one dimensional, we see a lot of Ezekiel Elliot, and hopefully the game grinds and the clock rolls.  Aaron Rodgers is great, but without Jordy Nelson, a limited running game, and a fresh Dallas team I think the GB season ends in Dallas. Let's play Dallas and the Under. Final score something like 27-20.

Thursday, January 12 2017 - Hoops and Hockey

                                            NBA 1/12
New Orleans -4: (97-41, 2-1)
New Orleans/Brooklyn UNDER 217.5 (26-9, 2-1)
LA Lakers/San Antonio UNDER 212 (52-22, 0-2)

                                            NCAAB 1/12
William & Mary/UNC Wilmington UNDER 162.5 (31-11, 2-1)
Delaware +10.5: (42-15, 0-1)
Drexel +10: (62-23, 3-2)
Wright St/Wisconsin GB UNDER 154 (95-36, 29-14)
Iowa +6: (60-29, 0-0)
Utah -5.5: (88-45, 0-0)
SMU +6: (102-48, 0-0)

                                           NHL 1/12
Boston (-1.5) +266 (54-58, 2-0)
New Jersey +163 (36-21, 3-0)

Anthony Davis is listed as questionable, this is a play only if AD plays which he probably will. The LA/SA angle is an interesting one. Playing the Under where both teams lost their previous, with 1 good team playing at home and the other a bad one.  Coming off a loss the good team will play with a bit more intensity on the defensive end and these games tend to go under. Slow start this year at 0-2 but that just means we are due for a W. It has been a winning situation every year for the past 10 years, not one losing season. 

Couple thoughts on a few of the NCAA games. Drexel is basically playing ON a Road Dog with a lousy ATS vs a good ATS team.  Wright St/WGB is that same under play we lost with last night. Its been very good this year.  7 games triggered tonight, the NCAAB games have been great so far this year and I expect that solid start to continue tonight.

Finally some NHL action.  Now the NHL games will not hit at the same percentage as the games with spreads, I play a lot of dogs and like the Puck Line when the situation arises. Take the Boston -1.5 for example, it hits at less than 50%. However, we are always getting better than 2/1 on a PL play, so even at a bit less than 50% you can pick up positive units.  The Bruins play is a short road favorite on the Puck Line, playing a team that just won as a home fav. New Jersey involves a Road Dog that isn't very good that just got shut out. They aren't playing a  team that is too bad, the opponent has to be at least 43%.  This insures a decent price. and getting shut out often inspires the team to give a great effort next game. Both of these situations have been very good this year, so if we can get at least one of them home its a winning night on the ice.

Now some might ask, why would you be happy with a split? Lets say we win the NJ game and lose the PL play. We are picking up .63 of a unit. We went 1-1 and we still pick up units. It doesn't sound sexy, but it adds to your bottom line. You get enough of these days and your bankroll will steadily grow. 

Plenty of games on the slate tonight.  Have a Great Day and as always, good luck with your action.

Wednesday, January 11 2017, RECAP

                                        NBA 1/11

New York -1.5: ( 91-41, 5-2)
NY/Philadelphia UNDER 209.5: (35-16, 5-5)
Cleveland -5: (67-31, 10-6), (44-15, 0-1) (70-34, 15-8)

Current Record: 159-153 (+6.05)

                                      NCAAB 1/11

Iowa St/Oklahoma St UNDER 158.5: (95-35, 29-13)
Tulane +5 (If it drops below +5 NO PLAY): (140-50, 0-2)
Northern Iowa -3.5: (72-26, 3-0)
Seton Hall/Marquette OVER 152.5: (44-25, 3-1)

Current Record: 72-48 (+22.60)

Blog Record: 8-6 (+1.7)

Let's start with the NBA. Cleveland was just awful, and I couldn't have been more wrong about that game. The Knicks?  Wow, what a collapse.  Up 6 with just over a minute to go, they lose by a point. Hey, at least it didn't go into OT and we lose a never in doubt Under.  A tough 1-2 that could very well have been a 2-1. But it wasn't, and nothing matters except the scoreboard. 

The NCAAB was also 1-2.  I am grading the Tulane win as a No Play, as I said anything below +5 was a Pass.  I actually played the game at +5 before I left for work, as I didn't have time later to monitor the line and wait. It won by DD, but it will not go on the record as a win.  Northern Iowa dropped to -2, and they were never in the game. In hindsight I could have passed it, they had a starting guard with an ankle that made him questionable. But I didn't, it lost, and that's that. The Under play finally lost after several wins this season, those guys went up and down the court and hit shots. A recipe for an Over. The OVER was a nice hit, a very solid situational that hit again.

So a disappointing 2-4 day, putting the record at 8-6 after 2 days. There will be days like this, when things just don't go your way, you lose a tough one, or you are just flat out wrong. I never get upset or down after a losing day. It happens.....to everyone..... despite what some people want you to believe. If you are looking for a guy that wins every single day, I'm not that guy.  But stick with the program and overall you will be a winning player.

One thing I've learned is that you have to trust what you do. The Clemson/Alabama a good example for me. I had a strong play on Clemson, and on game day a good friend of mine said everybody is on Clemson and you know what that means.  Take the other side.  I almost let him talk me into it, but I stayed with my Clemson pick and as we all know they won. As a handicapper, you have to trust what you do. Believe in the process. Even when you have a rough day, a day that makes you question your ability and your methodology. I've had days where I've gone 0-6 and I think, geezus do I really suck that bad?  Or did I just have a bad day. Well, the answer to that question is the season result. And if your overall record is positive, then yes it was just a bad day. Its amazing how many bad days are followed by really good ones. 

I'll have plays up at the same time during the week - mid morning/early afternoon PST, and on weekends when we have some early games they will be be posted early morning. 

Wednesday, January 11 2017 - NBA/NCAAB

Before I get started today, I just wanted to thank those of you that visited me on my first day. I had more page views than I expected, and as this gets rolling along I hope you will continue to visit me daily, as well as increasing the views as more people find my site. So thank you very much. I had over 29,000 page views on my NBA thread and nearly 8,000 for the NCAAB. I hope those folks find their way here. On to today's games.

                                              NBA 1/11
New York -1.5: ( 91-41, 5-2)
NY/Philadelphia UNDER 209.5: (35-16, 5-5)
Cleveland -5: (67-31, 10-6), (44-15, 0-1) (70-34, 15-8)

New York is a mess, with the Derrick Rose nonsense and losing 8 out of their last 9. But Philly fits a solid fade situation, so we will hold our nose and play the Knicks tonight. The Knicks play is a play against Philadelphia. The UNDER situation has been very streaky, going Under the last 4 times, with 5 Overs before that. Its been just 50% this year but historically pretty good, so we will try it tonight. 

Cleveland just lost last night in Utah, with Korver playing his first game. Utah is tough at home, and when you add a new player into your mix it takes a minute to adjust for that. Even for a team as good as Cleveland. I expect a focused group of Cavs tonight, and with 3 separate angles popping up for this game this is probably the best play on our board tonight. This game was a borderline OVER 220.5 play that was line dependent. If Clev goes over -5 it isn't a play. It opened at -3.5 and quickly went to -5. It wouldn't surprise me if it gets above -5. It's an official no play, but if anyone is interested in this total I would leeeeeeeean Over.

                                      NCAAB 1/11

Iowa St/Oklahoma St UNDER 158.5: (95-35, 29-13)
Tulane +5 (If it drops below +5 NO PLAY): (140-50, 0-2)
Northern Iowa -3.5: (72-26, 3-0)
Seton Hall/Marquette OVER 152.5: (44-25, 3-1)

The UNDER play is the one I talked about yesterday, its been great all year. Tulane is line dependent, wait on this line and if it goes below +5 then its a PASS. No Iowa is a play against Bradley, fading a losing team that just lost and didn't cover at home. The Over play involves a dog of a certain price off of a blowout home win playing a team that just lost by DD on the road.  These teams usually hook up in a game that is higher scoring than expected. Its been good since 2010 and great over the last 4 years going 25-7 to the Over during that span.

Another quiet night on the ice, as I didn't have a single NHL game pop up. Its rare that I go consecutive days without a play, but it also reminds me to never force a play. BTW, fading or Fade means to play against a team. So if I say we are fading Philadelphia tonight, it means we play the other side which tonight would be New York.  Have a great day and good luck with your action.

Tuesday, January 11 2017 RECAP - and Some Biz Background

                                      NBA 1/10
Miami (+15.5): 109-34, 1-1
Cleveland (-2): 30-12, 0-1
Detroit/Sacramento UNDER 205: 48-14, 7-2
Atlanta (-8.5): 33-16, 3-4
Charlotte (+9): 51-27, 7-5

Current Record: 158-151 (+7.15)

                                     NCAAB 1/10
Niagara (+6): 134-48, 1-1
No Kentucky/Wisc Green Bay UNDER 159: 94-35, 28-13
Kansas St/Texas Tech UNDER 132.5: 69-27, 4-1

Current Record: 71-46 (+23.70)

Blog Record: 6-2 (+3.9)

I mentioned that the UNDER plays tonight were very strong, and they didn't disappoint.  A nice 6-2 on our first day here.  These situations historically have been very good, and they didn't disappoint tonight. 
                           
                                Some Background On My Methodology

The majority of my plays are what I call "situational" or "angle" plays.  I don't like the word "system", it sounds contrived. The majority of my plays are plays that historically have shown a positive win expectation, and they fit certain situations or criteria.  I have spent hundreds and hundreds of hours researching them and refining them, and they have made me a winning player for several years. 

Every year I review how each angle has performed. Those that underperform are put in a folder for further observation.  Those that perform well obviously stay in play.  I will monitor the underperforming angles for 1 more year, and 2 consecutive poor years puts them out of play. Situations change, rules change, the game evolves.  What may have worked 5 years ago may not work any longer.  That goes for any method you use to handicap games.  You've got to stay on top of things, you have to constantly monitor your results. Otherwise, you are destined for failure.

I just reviewed my NCAAF systems, and after evaluating them I can't wait for next year.  They performed very well this year,  and the Bowl season was spectacular. I look forward to sharing those plays with all of you next fall. After the Super Bowl I'll do the same with the NFL angles. 

My baseball plays are ready to go, and I look forward to another winning baseball season. I got off to an awful start last season, losing 30+ units over the first 2+ months of the season. I know exactly why that happened, and it will not happen again. However, over the last 4 months I picked up nearly 60 units, which is a record I'll put up against anybody and was the best on the Forum over that time.  I didn't blast away with bogus 5/10 unit plays,  I didn't attach ridiculous unit or money amounts next to plays.  I'm not interested in a clown show, which is what so many threads on the Forum are about. I'm a serious handicapper, and I have no time for clowns.  For those of you that have a hard time with baseball, this site is the place you want to visit.  I will have a profitable baseball season, and you will have a blast hitting dogs that pay 1.50 and up, while your buddies are getting hammered losing while they play overpriced favorites.  Here is the link for my 2016 baseball thread. http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1050232

Basketball has been one of my best sports, and is one many people struggle with. Follow my basketball plays and you will be glad that you did. Both the NBA and NCAAB have given me some of my best results. This year one of the Top handicappers from Doc Sports has asked me to provide a few picks each day for the NBA, and its a request that I found very flattering. So far we have had good success. 

The NHL has been up and down this year, but still profitable. I'll post a few plays but right now I want to focus on the basketball. I'll review at year's end and streamline those plays. 

My true passion is horse racing. I loved all sports as a youngster and I can still remember watching Affirmed defeating Alydar in the memorable Triple Crown races of 1978.  In the mid 1980's a buddy of mine took me to Bay Meadows race track in my early 20's and I was hooked. The sights, sounds, majesty of these horses. And of course, the wagering. In 1991 I took my first road trip to Santa Anita for the Santa Anita Handicap, and my friends and I have made that a yearly journey every year. We've seen a lot of great horses, races, and jockeys. The Breeders' Cup is my favorite day of the year, and I will have wagering strategies on that day that will be very profitable.  I rarely posted on the RX in the horse racing forum, but here is a thread I started for a day at Saratoga.  I posted tickets, pre race, that netter over $10,000. Here is that thread..http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1026183&highlight=saratoga

You will see the following sports featured on my site: NFL/NCAAF, NBA/NCAAB, NHL, MLB, CFL (yes, I do Canadian Football too), and a little WNBA. This site will provide you with wagering advice and game picks that are second to none.  I firmly believe that, and I firmly believe that what I do works. Talk is cheap, the record will speak for itself. 

If you are struggling to win consistently, if you are looking for guidance then you have come to the right place.  I will help you increase your bankroll and put you on a winning path.  I will not win every day or every week.  Nobody does, and anyone that tries to tell you differently is full of shit. What I expect to do is win over the course of a season. Its a marathon folks, not a sprint. Winning is a grind, not a quick 1 day windfall. Patience and discipline are the key to success. 

I look forward to working with all of you. 

If you have any questions, about anything, please feel free to contact me:
biz112763@gmail.com

NCAAF Championship Recap and Game Picks Tuesday, Jan 10 2017

We were treated to another classic Championship game last night. And the better team won. Clemson outplayed Alabama, and made the plays that Champions make. All we heard all week is how Alabama had the greatest defense of all time, blah blah blah. Clemson had the best player on the field, and his name was Deshaun Watson. What a special player. Aside from his obvious talents, his leadership skills are what make him a truly special and elite athlete. A well deserved victory for the better team. 

I would like to welcome all of you to the Biz Winners site. All of my game selections, game breakdowns, thoughts on just about anything can be found here. I hope you all bookmark this site and visit daily, as I look forward to another winning season in all sports.   

                            NBA 1/10
Miami (+15.5): 109-34, 1-1
Cleveland (-2): 30-12, 0-1
Detroit/Sacramento UNDER 205: 48-14, 7-2
Atlanta (-8.5): 33-16, 3-4
Charlotte (+9): 51-27, 7-5

Current Record: 154-150 (+4.2)

5 games tonight, with the strongest looking like the UNDER play.  It fits a situation that is 48-14 historically and 7-2 this year. It involves a team that has given up a lot of points recently among other things. 

                                     NCAAB 1/10
Niagara (+6): 134-48, 1-1
No Kentucky/Wisc Green Bay UNDER 159: 94-35, 28-13
Kansas St/Texas Tech UNDER 132.5: 69-27, 4-1

Current Record: 69-45 (+22.75)

Both Under plays have been very good this year. The No Kent/WGB game is a system play I came up with this year. It has to do with pace of play, and its been great with a lot of plays.  The other K St game involves 2 winning teams that have played several OVERS lately and are due for a regression. 

I'll have the NFL Division Round breakdown a little later in the week. Have a great day, and feel free to leave any comments below.