I only had one play yesterday, so today I will give out two Free Plays. Both plays will be in tonight's CFL game.
Toronto +11 and UNDER 53.5
Toronto is a team that has had a very poor DPS (delta points scored). DPS is the points a team is expected to score based on the spread and total. For example, Team A is favored by 7 and the total is 49. The expected final score would be 28-21, a 7 point spread and a total that adds up to 49. So Team A would be expected to score 28. If they score less than that, its a negative number, more is a positive.
Toronto has underachieved using this metric this year. Road Dogs getting at least 7 points, that have underperformed by at least a TD on average, have gone 12-3 ATS.
The UNDER fits a couple different situations. A decent Home Fav with a total of 51+ has gone 41-15 UNDER and 3-2 this year. Both losses were close margins.
The other situation takes into account last week's total for both teams compared to today's total. 53-19 UNDER and this year its gone 2-0.
These teams just played each other last week, so familiarity may lead to a lower scoring game.
Take TORONTO +11 and UNDER 53.5 as the BIZ Free Plays for Friday.
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Good Luck with today's Free Play and have a Great Day.
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