Sunday, January 22 2017 - RECAP

                                                               NFL

Pittsburgh +6/UNDER 51

Atlanta PK/OVER 54.5 (2 Team 6pt Teaser)

                                       NCAAB

Youngstown St +4.5: (28-6, 0-0) (59-15, 5-3)

Fairfield/Monmouth UNDER 161.5: (91-32, 31-13)

Current Record: 100-71 (+26.45)

                                       NBA

Minnesota -4.5: (70-28, 0-0)
Los Angeles Lakers/Dallas UNDER 206.5: (27-9, 3-1)

Current Record: 176-170 (+5.20)

Blog Record: 57-64 (-11.55)

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Congrats to both favorites today, they won and covered very impressively. We were looking at a nice 2-1 NFL until Pittsburgh scores late in garbage time to kill our Under. 

NCAAB Youngstown couldn't hold onto their halftime lead, went to OT and couldn't cover getting points. Another tough one.  Our pace UNDER play continues to be money, what a spectacular year that situation is having. That angle needs to be a 2U play going forward.

NBA had a no doubt UNDER winner that was going under from the start.  Minnesota missed crucial FTs down the stretch blowing the cover.  Those of you that got -3.5 were really screwed, no way the -3.5 lines should have lost that game.

Let's put this week behind us and look forward to a clean start tomorrow. Just some absolutely brutal beats all week long. It happens. 3 of those losses could very well have been wins but they weren't, the scoreboard said so. Hope you all enjoyed the games and I'll see you tomorrow.

Sunday, January 22 2017, NFL Conf Championships and Hoops

                                                                 NFL

Pittsburgh +6/UNDER 51:

Dogs of 6+ with a total less than 50 and aren't public plays do very well in the playoffs. Both teams give up less than 20 points per game, with Pittsburgh playing better than that over the last half of the season. Much has been made about NE facing weak teams and weak QBs, and while that may be true they can only play who is on the schedule. They played earlier this year when Big Ben was out, and NE prevailed. The problem that game was the rush defense for Pittsburgh, they were gashed for 140 yds at 4.8/att.  I mentioned last week Pittsburgh doesn't score as many points away from home as they do at Heinz Field. With an improved defense the last half of the season, I think Pittsburgh keeps it close and may win outright.  24-23 New England.

Atlanta PK/OVER 54.5 (2 Team 6pt Teaser)

I am struggling with the other game. I have a future ticket on GB winning the Conference and Super Bowl, 4/1 and 8/1. At full strength I really like them, but man they are beat up. I just wonder how much continuity they can have with so many receivers hobbling or out. Normally I would love GB getting 6 points, but Atlanta just has that look of a team going to the Super Bowl. However, we've seen this before from these guys.  Is this the year Matt Ryan finally breaks thru in the final game at the Georgia Dome?? It seems as if everyone loves Atlanta and the Over, which would normally have me taking Green Bay and the Under. With a fast track and 2 defenses that aren't the greatest, hard to take the under even at the inflated number. A 2 team teaser with Atlanta and the Over maybe a decent idea. A 6pt teaser +6/54.5 is -110. Let's make this the official play.

                                       NCAAB

Youngstown St +4.5: (28-6, 0-0) (59-15, 5-3)

Fairfield/Monmouth UNDER 161.5: (91-32, 31-13)

EDIT 9:30AM: FAIRFIELD NO PLAY - I just got up and saw that it fell out of a play. I would buy out of it if you already played it. 

Youngstown St a dog that just won outright as a DD Dog. Also, a road team that has allowed a lot of points lately vs an opp that just won. The UNDER is the pace play that has been very good despite the awful beat yesterday.

                                       NBA

Minnesota -4.5: (70-28, 0-0)

Los Angeles Lakers/Dallas UNDER 206.5: (27-9, 3-1)

Minnesota a bad RF previously favored, not on a road trip or a BTB. UNDER is a road team that just won by DD as a dog.

Enjoy the football games. Its my favorite football day of the year, a day I always request off from my job. I will watch 7 hours of football, my wife making some great wings and I will make some killer nachos. Grilled carne asada, my famous guacamole, homemade salsa, a nacho cheese recipe that rocks, jalapeños, the works. I hope you all have a great time, a cold drink in one hand and something tasty in the other. Good luck with your action.

Saturday, January 21 2017 - RECAP

                                   NCAAB

Providence +17: (44-10, 8-0)

Tulsa -6: (67-26, 1-2)
Ball St -2.5: (67-26, 1-2)
College Charleston -7.5: (37-10, 5-1)
Appalachian St +8: (68-25, 5-1)
Citadel +13: (58-15, 4-3)
So Carolina/Kentucky UNDER 148: (70-28, 5-2)
Marist +9.5: (68-25, 5-1)
Marist/Rider UNDER 149.5: (91-31, 31-12)
Murray St -4.5: (73-27, 4-1) (41-19, 4-3)
Montana -6: (96-37, 6-3) (73-27, 4-1)
Oregon -14.5: (64-24, 1-1)

Current Record: 99-70 (+26.50)

                                   NBA
Brooklyn +12: (32-17, 2-2)
Brooklyn/Charlotte UNDER 221: (34-14, 3-1) (53-24, 9-6)
New York -5.5: (79-34, 3-5)
Phoenix/New York OVER 222.5: (58-24, 9-7)
Houston -1: (72-26, 3-0) (84-25, 2-0)
Washington/Detroit UNDER 208: (33-9, 5-1)


Current Record: 175-169 (+5.25)

Blog Record: 54-60 (-10.35)
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I'm still trying to figure out how on earth we didn't have a winning day. The only NCAA game I want to talk about is that Marist/Rider UNDER.  The other 11 games the results were deserved, but this one made me want to puke. It was our vaunted pace play, one that has been spectacular to me all season. 149.5 was the number, and with 2:39 left the score is 70-62 Rider. 18 points beats us, and Marist is close to the number. Marist can't buy a bucket, and with 1:21 left - after fouling - Marist is down 77-62. They come down and get a bucket, then foul again. The side is lost, let's get the Under and move on.

So here's the situation. With 58 seconds Marist fouls down 13, which is fine because thats what college kids do.  They foul until the bitter end. I'm figuring, after the foul shots if they don't score they'll call it a day. Its 81-66 after the 2 FTs. They go down, miss another shot, and decide to not foul. Perfect. Rider is going to run clock and do whatever. Well, whatever turned into a 3PT Fg with 20 seconds left.  That gave Rider their 82, 83, and 84th point making the final 84-66. I'll help with the math, that equals 150. The day started off so well, 6-1 at one point only to lose the last 5 including this one. 7-5 sounds so much better. Nope. Scoreboard says 6-6.

Which brings me to the Phoenix/New York game. Houston a no doubt winner, Brooklyn and the Under both wins. Lost the Wash/Det Under, and the Knicks losing doesn't bother me either.  They had their chances and blew it. What was incredible is how these 2 teams manage to score 180 points after 3 periods, yeah that's right, they averaged 60 points per quarter. They only scored 32 in the 4th, 15 after 6 minutes and proceeded to continue tossing up bricks and turn the ball over. But it gets better.

Knicks down 2 with the ball and 35 seconds or so left. Rose drives, gets pushed in the back and gets a no call as he misses the layup.  Phoenix comes down and misses, so with 6 seconds left NY has a chance to send it into OT. Carmelo gets the inbounds and launches a 25 foot 3 Pointer that rims out, which didn't matter because if it goes in they win by 1 and no OT.  4-2 turns into 3-3. With any luck, just a pinch of luck, we're 11-7 overall for a solid winning day. Nope. Take your 9-9 and juice loss and come back tomorrow.

Had to vent a little folks, I really thought today was going to be a nice day just like last Saturday. However, we just couldn't catch a break on those 2 games. Tough losses to be sure, and it won't be the last time. You've got to be able to shake them off and move on.

A good friend of mine, who also wagers on sports, asked me how do I deal with tough beats and rough stretches. I give him the same answers every time. First you have to believe in what you do, trust the process and methodology.  I am a winning player, but that doesn't mean I win every day or every week. I know that at the end of the season I will usually show a profit. You also have to be able to quickly forget tough beats and losing days.  Its similar to a great NBA shooter missing shot after shot, sooner or later the shots will fall. He doesn't stop shooting. For me, sooner or later the games will win more often than not. Its absolutely frustrating when you go thru tough stretches, but it really tests your mettle. 

Ok, about that situation that is now 9-0 after Providence covered today. My buddy in Florida loves that angle, and told me that he sprinkled some on the ML the last time. It was the Georgia St game from Monday. I said it covers over 80% of the time, but wins the game only 30%. You would need to average around +335 to break even. Then it hit me.......hey genius, we're talking about mainly DD dogs here.  Of course they will be at least that price, so I did a little research to find out just what kind of prices these dogs paid on the ML.  Get a load of this.

2016: 9-0 ATS (+9.00)

           4-5 ML  (+25.84) Wins: +341, +1432, +907, +429

2015: 14-4-1 ATS (+17.8)

           5-14 ML     (+25.59) +1500 NCAA Tourney Mid Tenn ST, +1000, +397, +709, +423.  The last 3 were ON THE SAME DAY. 

2014: 5-1 ATS (+3.95)

           1-5 ML (+.12) +537

2013: 6-2 ATS (+3.9)

           2-6 ML (+5.59) +674, +515

2012: 1-2 ATS (-1.1)

           0-3 ML (-3.15)

2011: 6-0 ATS (+6.0)

          3-3 ML (+6.95)

2010: 4-1 ATS: (+2.95)

          2-3 ML: Database I checked didn't go back this far, but safe to say they were around +500 putting it at around (+9.85)

Most years its more profitable, and some years a lot more, playing these huge dogs on the ML. It never occurred to me how good this was until my buddy mentioned he sprinkled some on the ML the other day. Obviously, this will be added when this play comes up again.

I'll be back later with the plays for Sunday.  Today I had more views than any day since I started, so to each of you my sincere thanks for dropping by and trusting in what I do. I know many of you wager on some or most of the plays, I wager on all of them, so I feel a heightened sense of responsibility to do the very best I can. Tossing the NHL the hoops are around break even or a very small deficit, nothing we can't over come. See you all tomorrow.

Saturday, January 21 2017 GAME PICKS

                                       NCAAB

Providence +17: (44-10, 8-0)

Tulsa -6: (67-26, 1-2)
Ball St -2.5: (67-26, 1-2)
College Charleston -7.5: (37-10, 5-1)
Appalachian St +8: (68-25, 5-1)
Citadel +13: (58-15, 4-3)
So Carolina/Kentucky UNDER 148: (70-28, 5-2)
Marist +9.5: (68-25, 5-1)
Marist/Rider UNDER 149.5: (91-31, 31-12)
Murray St -4.5: (73-27, 4-1) (41-19, 4-3)
Montana -6: (96-37, 6-3) (73-27, 4-1)

OREGON -14.5: (64-24, 1-1)
Thanks Andrew, I skipped right over that one. 

As I write this Providence down 4 at half and trying to hold on in 2H. Man are they missing some shots at the rim. Ball St a good RF on a winning streak vs a bad team. Tulsa same thing. Coll Charleston we are fading a bad team that just lost a close one on the road. App St is fading a HF with some TO and def stats. Marist same thing. Citadel a road team thats given up a lot of points vs a team that just won/no blow out. Oregon is fading a big dog thats on a cover streak. SC/UK Under has 2 good teams that have gone over recently. Marist/Rider Under is the pace play we've had before. Murray St fading a losing conf HD that just lost/no cover at home.  Finally Montana a good RF vs a bad team that just lose.  The other situation is similar.

I like all of them so just 1U.  if I had a lean to stronger plays it would be Montana and that pace play to the Under. Most angles been doing very well this year, so lets continue the strong NCAAB season. And Providence down 19. Wow. 

                                     NBA
Brooklyn +12: (32-17, 2-2)
Brooklyn/Charlotte UNDER 221: (34-14, 3-1) (53-24, 9-6)
New York -5.5: (79-34, 3-5)
Phoenix/New York OVER 222.5: (58-24, 9-7)
Houston -1: (72-26, 3-0) (84-25, 2-0)
Washington/Detroit UNDER 208: (3-9, 5-1)
Milwaukee +1: (77-30, 8-3) (63-15, 6-1) DOG ONLY

Brooklyn is a RD that just busted a long losing streak on the road. UNDER is a home team that won the last 2 by DD vs a team thats had a couple high scoring games. Also a good home team that has played to the UNDER the past 3 games by quite a bit. NY is our pythagorean play on a mediocre home team. The OVER is a road team that went over in a high scoring game vs a team with a close home loss that went over. Houston is fading a HD on a BTB and has played a lot recently. Doesn't matter that Houston is also tired.  Houston also a good team off a blowout loss. Wash/Det UNDER is a high total with teams on a winning streak. Milwaukee a decent team allowing a lot recently and opp won their previous game.

7 games NBA and 12 NCAAB. Providence cuts it to 9, then starts turning it over again. Down 15 with 3 min left, if this doesn't cover it will very very frustrating. Most of the TOs have led to easy buckets. Ok folks, have a great day.  Thanks for stopping by, and as always good luck with your action. 

Friday, January 20 2017 RECAP

                                       NBA
Portland -1.5: (72-31, 4-5)
Milwaukee -4: (72-31, 4-5)
Atlanta -4.5: (44-13, 3-0) (57-20, 1-1)
Golden St -5: (66-20, 2-4) (67-32, 10-7)
Indiana/LA Lakers OVER 220: (22-6, 4-4)
Utah -5.5: (22-4, 0-1)

Current Record: 172-166 (+5.40)


                                       NCAAB
Manhattan +14: (50-14, 2-2)
Canisius -3.5: (41-18, 4-2)

Current Record: 93-64 (+26.80)

Blog Record: 45-51 (-9.9
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I'm kicking myself for not suggesting 2U plays on Atlanta and Golden St.  Rockets a scheduling nightmare right now and Dubs wanted a little payback for the home loss. I mentioned that Atlanta was the best play of the night.

Portland another disgusting loss. They missed a few FTs in the last minute and then up 2 with 5 seconds, they give up a 3 pointer for the loss. Utah wins by 5, missing the cover by a half. I liked LA, didn't make them an official play, and they win comfortably.  NCAA another split out.

I mentioned earlier in the week that I will put an extra unit or 2 on games I really like. I straight bleeped up last night, and as I said it makes no sense to assign the same value to every game if you really like something.

I'll be back in the morning with a full slate.  Looks like a busy day, and hopefully we repeat last Saturday's great NCAAB day. If you toss out the awful hockey we are right about even on the hoops, and it will turn around any day.  You're probably getting sick of hearing it, but this happens every year. I had a guy that followed my baseball, jumped off when it struggled, and watched on the sidelines as the baseball rattled off 60 units in 4 months. Tomorrow is a new day.  Thanks for dropping by.

Friday, January 20 2017 GAME PICKS

                                                                  NBA
Portland -1.5: (72-31, 4-5)
Milwaukee -4: (72-31, 4-5)
Atlanta -4.5: (44-13, 3-0) (57-20, 1-1)
Golden St -5: (66-20, 2-4) (67-32, 10-7)
Indiana/LA Lakers OVER 220: (22-6, 4-4)
Utah -5.5: (22-4, 0-1)

Portland a RF off a blowout loss. Milwaukee the same play. Atlanta lost previous as a small RF and playing a Conf/Non-Div game tonight. We are also fading a dog (Chicago) that just lost by a point playing in a  Conf/Non-Div game.  Dubs game we are fading a HD (Houston) that allows a lot and just scored a lot.  We are also playing ON a very good RF that have scored well the last 3 games. The Over is a Road team with a smallish line that just had a huge halftime deficit and that game went Under.  Utah a RF with an extended layoff.

                                                                NCAAB
Manhattan +14: (50-14, 2-2)
Canisius -3.5: (41-18, 4-2)

Manhattan is a situation with a DD Dog that just allowed a lot of points, playing a team that plays a lot of high scoring games in Conf. If this lines shoots up above 14 then its not a play. Line moves like that in this situation aren't good. The numbers show they lose.  Canisius is a situation where we fade the HD that were just involved in 2 high scoring games. We are 2-0 the last week with this one.

8 games tonight and I have a good feeling about them.  If I had to pick a favorite game it would probably be Atlanta coming off that ass kicking in Detroit combined with 2 very nice angles. I think we get a lot of scoring in LA too. I was THIS close to making LA a play. Not an official play, but if anyone likes them go ahead and do it.

Make sure you monitor that Manhattan line, if it goes up just pass it.  We have other plays, passing one isn't bad.

8 plays and looking for a winning night, we are so due for one. We just need the breaks to come our way, or forget breaks just no funny stuff. Have a great evening and as always, good luck with your action.

Thursday, January 19 2017 RECAP

                                                                   NBA
Miami -2: (92-43, 6-4)
Current Record: 170-162 (+7.60)

                                        NCAAB
Stanford -4.5: (95-37, 5-3)
Pepperdine/BYU UNDER 160: (29-12, 4-3)
California +9: (45-25, 3-0)
California/Oregon UNDER 131.5: (46-23, 1-2)

Current Record: 92-63 (+26.85)

Blog Record: 42-46 (-7.65)

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Miami a nice winner in a strange game, as each team took turns making runs at each other. 

Stanford a solid winner, but the other 3 never had the feeling of winning throughout. Another frustrating day of winning the NBA but losing NCAAB, seems like lately we can't get both to win. I know this will turn around any day.

Ok, last thing about the bet%/money% plays.  I'm going to shelve these for one simple reason.   There is too much movement in the percentages after I post them, they work much better if you assess the numbers close to tip time.  Games with a 30%+ edge do very well, but unless I monitor them close to tip I can't play them nor do I want to give out games that I can't monitor until that time. Due to my work schedule I can't do this most nights. I will have enough plays without them.  If I happen to notice a play that ALSO has a bet% that is positive, I'll note it. 

I'll be back tomorrow with the plays. You guys are probably sick of hearing it, but I know we will go on a nice winning streak any day now. See you tomorrow.

Thursday, January 19 2017 Game Picks

                                                                   NBA
Miami -2: (92-43, 6-4)

A game between 2 bad teams with a low line. The team we are fading (Dallas) just won as a Road Dog. 


                                        NCAAB
Stanford -4.5: (95-37, 5-3)
Pepperdine/BYU UNDER 160: (29-12, 4-3)
California +9: (45-25, 3-0)
California/Oregon UNDER 131.5: (46-23, 1-2)

Stanford is a good road team playing a bad one that just lost in Conference. The UNDER play involves 2 teams that just went over and the turnovers were low. Cal is a side/total combo play, fading a high scoring team (Oregon) that just scored a lot

These are the plays. Couple things...the BYU game seems to be dropping so the sooner you get that one the better.  The Cal game total is rising so you can wait a bit until you feel the line has leveled off, its been going up from the opening number. The side is at +9 and I don't see that moving much, I would suggest taking the 9 now. 

Check back later for the games I talked about yesterday, the ones with positive line movement. Probably around 2:30/3:00 PST.  Have a great day and good luck with your action.
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EDIT: 1:25PM
Here are the games I'm looking at, these are not plays yet. I will wait another hour or so for final numbers.

Sacramento St 
Jacksonville St
Delaware
North Texas
Western Carolina
Portland
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDIT: 3:00PM
Sacramento ST -1: 43/97
Jacksonville St +9.5: 38/78
North Texas +2: 29/70
Western Carolina PK: 39/86

Passing Delaware and Portland. Money % went below 70, so we will go with these 4 games. They look like the strongest. 

Wednesday, January 18 2017 RECAP

                                       NBA
Sacramento (-2): (79-32, 3-3)
Memphis/Washington UNDER 207: (51-24, 7-6)

Current Record: 169-162 (+6.60)


                                      NCAAB
St Joseph's (+6.5): 64-24, 5-3)
TCU/Texas Tech UNDER 136: (70-27, 5-1)
Boston College +15: (51-12, 0-0)
Nebraska -1.5: (90-47, 2-2)
Fresno St -5: (46-16, 0-0) (90-47, 2-2)

Current Record: 91-60 (+29.00)

UNDER 5.5 Boston/Detroit

Blog Record: 40-43 (-6.5)

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Well if I can't get a 70+% situation that had been 5-0 this year to win, then its time to just focus on basketball. 

Sacramento, just wow.  Up 19 at the half and get outscored 65-40 in the 2nd half. The Under winner did what so many NBA games do....have a high scoring 1H followed by a grinding low scoring 2H. Or a low scoring 1H followed by a high scoring 2H. The NBA is like no other sport. 

2-3 NCAAB tonight with Nebraska letting us down late after leading the entire game. The other wins and losses were deserved. Nebraska was the difference between a winning a losing night. 

Now I mentioned St Joseph and the strong betting action they were receiving. I have access to some pretty good wagering numbers, and a buddy of mine has been tracking the games too. What we have found is that when a team has a much higher percentage of the money bet on them relative to the amount of tickets wagered on them, they are a strong play.  I had St Joseph marked as a 2U play based on the situation they were in and the wagering action, and changed it at the last minute .  They had 48% of tickets and 83% of the money late afternoon. Checking the final numbers they were 46%-80%.

There were 6 games that stood out.  They were the following games:

Air Force 24-71

Indiana St 49-81

Temple: 56-87

St Joseph: 46-80

Oral Roberts: 33-66

Nebraska Omaha: 55-89

They went 5-1 with Indiana St the only loser. I will post these games daily and we will track them to see if they continue to win at a good clip. I will probably post the daily picks a little later, so that I can monitor the numbers as late as possible. 

Folks, this will get better. A rough stretch with some tough beats, I get these stretches every year and at the end of the season the numbers will show a nice profit. Don't get discouraged by a rough few days, we will turn this around I have no doubt about that. 

Check in tomorrow around 2:30pm PST for Thursday picks. 

https://twitter.com/Biz112763

Wednesday, January 18 2017

                                                                NBA
Sacramento (-2): (79-32, 3-3)
Memphis/Washington UNDER 207: (51-24, 7-6)

Sacramento is an underperforming team based on points scored/allowed. The UNDER is a home team off 2 big wins vs a team that has been involved in relatively high scoring games in their last 2. 

                                                                NCAAB
St Joseph's (+6.5): 64-24, 5-3)
TCU/Texas Tech UNDER 136: (70-27, 5-1)
Boston College +15: (51-12, 0-0)
Nebraska -1.5: (90-47, 2-2)
Fresno St -5: (46-16, 0-0) (90-47, 2-2)

St Joseph is the RD w/poor ATS vs good ATS team. It won twice over the weekend. The UNDER involves 2 good teams that have played to several Overs lately. BC is the same situation as Miss St last night, a nice HD spot. Nebraska a HF that just scored a lot. Fresno St a HF that just scored a lot with 2 avg def teams. The 2nd spot is similar.

St Joseph's lost their top player 3 games ago, and they are 1-3 since. That is accounted for in the line.  They are also getting strong action, 45% tickets yet 83% money. 

I know I said no more NHL, but I have a situation that is 5-0 this year. Play UNDER 5.5 Boston/Detroit.  Its 54-20 and 5-0 TY.  2 avg teams with the Home team off a shutout win.

Thanks for dropping by, have a great day (its rainy, cold, and miserable in the Bay Area today), and as always good luck with your action.

Tuesday, January 17 2017 RECAP

                                          NBA
Houston +8: (66-19, 2-3)
Minnesota/San Antonio UNDER 201: (52-24, 0-4)
Dallas +6: (25-9, 4-0)

Current Record: 168-161 (+6.65)

                                       NCAAB
Mississippi St +14.5: (51-12, 0-0)
Illinois/Purdue UNDER 144: (78-30, 0-0) 

Current Record: 89-57 (+30.15)

                                       NHL
Dallas/New York Rangers UNDER 6 (-118): 57-27, 7-3)

Blog Record: 37-38 (-4.25)
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Let's just start with this. I'm done posting hockey for awhile. Worst streak that I can remember. I will be extremely selective going forward. I had a feeling this game would be high scoring, and when it went to 6 I should have just passed it. 

Time to ditch the Under play that is now 0-5 after being good for so long.  I gave it one more chance and it was clear it had no chance of going under. I can live with the Houston loss, it happens......and we got a nice outright win with the 6 pt dog Mavericks.

Miss St a solid cover getting 14/14.5 depending when you played it, while the Under was trending to the over throughout.  So another split out with the NCAAB.  Overall its still outstanding at over 60%, and that is with a large sample size of nearly 150 games.  

Going forward I will start grading the different plays, and will suggest a 2U or even a 3U play at times. It makes no sense to give the same weight to a 75% situation that is undefeated this year, while another situation isn't quite as good. That 7-0 NCAAB play has been fantastic, and playing it for the same amount as others doesn't make much sense. 

A little flat right now, but this happened last year too and over the last 2-3 months the basketball was phenomenal. Its a marathon, not a sprint, and we will have several days that split out or are marginal losers. We will also have days like Saturday when the basketball just clicks, and many nice winning days. 

I'll be back early afternoon with the plays. Thanks for stopping by. 

Tuesday, January 17 2017

                                                                 NBA
Houston +8: (66-19, 2-3)
Minnesota/San Antonio UNDER 201: (52-24, 0-4)
Dallas +6: (25-9, 4-0)

Houston is a good road favorite that's scored a lot of points recently on short rest. The UNDER play is the same one from yesterday, now 0-4 this year. I'm not concerned about short term streaks, its been really good every year, I'll keep playing it a few more times. Dallas is a play against Chicago, a HF that just won as a RD without a lot of fouls. Rare than road dogs get the benefit of the calls, they tend to be overvalued a bit in their next game. Been a solid situation. 

                                                                 NCAAB
Mississippi St +14.5: (51-12, 0-0)
Illinois/Purdue UNDER 144: (78-30, 0-0)

Just a couple plays tonight. Fading Kentucky, a RF thats been shooting well and just had a good scoring game playing a team that isn't a poor shooting team. The UNDER involves a couple decent/good shooting teams with a moderate total.

                                                                  NHL
Dallas/New York Rangers UNDER 6 (-118): 57-27, 7-3)

A HF that just lost as a RD vs a team that also lost. 

Not a very busy night. Hopefully we can finally get an NHL game to come in.  5 games on the hardwood, lets have a winning night. Thanks for dropping by, and as always good luck with your action. 

Monday, January 16 2017 RECAP

                                  NCAAB
Portland St -10: (95-25, 5-2)
Georgia Southern -3: (67-25, 1-1)
Georgia St +9: (43-10, 7-0)
UNC Central -5 (40-18, 3-2)
Youngstown St/Detroit UNDER 167.5: (28-12, 3-3)
Texas St/Troy UNDER 137.5: (44-21, 1-1)

Current Record: 88-56 (+30.20)

                                 NBA
Portland +3.5: (44-16, 0-2)
Philadelphia +9: (41-13, 2-1)
Philadelphia/Milwaukee UNDER 207.5: (52-23, 0-3)
Denver -6: (97-41, 2-1)

Current Record: 167-159 (+7.75)

                                  NHL

Arizona +191: (36-33, 3-1)

Current Record: 92-101 (+1.76)

Blog Record: 35-34 (-2.05)

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The NBA was a pure split out. Not much to say about those 4 games. The Under was on pace after a half, but the 2H the scoring really increased and it had the feeling after the 3rd it was going Over. Portland done very early, while the 2 winners looked good from start to finish. 

The NCAAB on the other hand. Geezus are we taking some rough beats lately. Portland St was done early, a no doubt loss. Ga Southern was laying 3 points, and with 29 seconds left had a 6 point lead. ULL hits a 3 and fouls a few seconds later. 2 FTs make it a 5 point game with 14 seconds, we just need an empty possession for the win. ULL jacks a 3 that misses with 8 seconds, get an off rebound and hit a 3 with ONE second left. Now its a non covering 2 point lead, they inbound the ball and ULL can't get a foul in time. Brutal. The Troy under had a 50 point 1H on a 137.5 total. What more can you ask for, it would take 88 points in the 2H to beat us. No way thats gonna happen after that 1H. Uh, they score 96. Ninety. Six. So a 5-1, or at least a 4-2 turns into a 3-3 split out. 

As for the winners, how about that 7-0 situation that wins again for 8-0 this year??? Another big dog wins outright, I had one buddy text me he hammered that play again and even sprinkled some ML on it. 

The NHL lost its only play, so glad it decided the last 7 days would be the worst stretch of the season. 

Small loss, time for a winning day tomorrow. If you aren't playing every sport, hopefully everyone is playing the college hoops.  Thanks for stopping by and I'll be back tomorrow morning with the day's action. 

Monday, January 16 2017

                                                             NBA
Portland +3.5: (44-16, 0-2)
Philadelphia +9: (41-13, 2-1)
Philadelphia/Milwaukee UNDER 207.5: (52-23, 0-3)
Denver -6: (97-41, 2-1)

Portland game is a play on a team that just lost, vs a team (Washington) that just won when their opponents bricked off at the FT line all game. It has not had a losing year so I expect this one to turn around. Philly is a game where we are fading their opponent (Milwaukee) playing at home, that is on a BTB having just lost on the road. The opp (Philly) is not on a BTB and is on a road trip. The Under is a good home team vs a bad road team, both of them just lost. Another situation that hasn't had a losing year so a bounce back is expected here. Denver is a a favored well rested bad team playing another bad team.

                                       NCAAB
Portland St -10: (95-25, 5-2)
Georgia Southern -3: (67-25, 1-1)
Georgia St +9: (43-10, 7-0)
UNC Central -5 (40-18, 3-2)
Youngstown St/Detroit UNDER 167.5: (28-12, 3-3)
Texas St/Troy UNDER 137.5: (44-21, 1-1)

Portland St a good RF vs a bad team that just lost in Conf. Ga Southern a good RF on a moderate win streak vs a bad team in Conf. Georgia St is the same situation as Detroit Mercy Friday night. Its been on fire 7-0 TY. UNC Central is fading a HD with a moderate net point advantage, after playing in 2 cons high scoring games. The 1st UNDER is a road team that has forced a moderate amount of TOs the last 3 games, and both teams went Over in their last. The 2nd Under involves a high scoring HF that scored a lot last game, with a relatively low total. 

                                        NHL
Arizona +191: (36-33, 3-1)

Arizona a lousy RD off a shutout loss. Its been very solid at big prices. I don't love giving out a huge dog after that Saturday bloodbath on the ice, but its a play. And I'm coming back for more, "thank you can I have another". Who can tell me what classic movie that comes from????

Of folks, new week clean slate. Let's have a winning day, enjoy your holiday - hopefully many of you have the day off, I don't - and good luck with your action.