Thursday Recap, August 30 2018

NFL

Indianapolis/Cincinnati UNDER 34.5

Marvin Lewis 9-3-1 UNDER in last pre season game including 6 of last 7.

Carolina/Pittsburgh UNDER 36

Mike Tomlin 9-1-1 UNDER last pre season game, Ron Rivera is 6-1 UNDER last pre season game.

Minnesota PK or -1

Denver PK or -1

Minnesota and Denver fit a line move system for the pre season. They are a play only at PK/-1. 

NCAAF

Savannah St +38.5

Savannah St fits a week 1 system. We are playing 4+ TD dogs with a moderate total vs a bowl team from last year. We have another one on Saturday. Its really hard to play teams laying this many points, and yes its entirely possible teams like this get blown out. Its 45-18 since 2005, the last 3 years 12-1, 4-2, 5-4 with the next 2 years 2-5, 1-2 followed by 3-0, 9-1. 

As you can see some years a lot of plays, other years not too many. There is only one other game that is triggered by this system. Hold your nose and play Savannah St +38.5

Missouri St +42.5

Northwestern St +47

Both teams fit the same situation. Again a 4+ TD dog playing a bowl team, the total is 56+ and the line moves with them (line rises). 36-12 since 2005 and never a losing year. 20-2 the last 3 years, 10-5 the 3 years prior to that.  We are just hoping these guys don’t give up 60+ points. 

One other game triggered for Saturday.  Again, hold your nose and play Missouri St +40 and Northwestern St +47. 

At no point during these games will you feel comfortable. We are huge dogs and these teams will give up a lot of points. Missou St is playing in Stillwater, and I’m sure Ok St will score plenty. We just need a cover. 

Tulane now +6.5/+7 that was given out yesterday.  So 4 NCAAF and 4 NFLX. Have a Great Night and good luck with your action.

Biz