Kentucky Oaks Day 2017: Complete Analysis for the Churchill Downs Race Card

Welcome to my Kentucky Oaks Report. I will give a detailed analysis of the Oaks, with shorter analysis for the entire card. I will suggest wagers of all types. I didn't post often in the horse racing forum, but 2 summers ago i posted winning tickets that cashed for over $10,000. You can find that thread in my welcome thread on the right side of the page.  Let's begin.  If you are unsure of what a specific wager is, exacta or P3 for example, please leave a comment and I will respond asap.

Race 1: This race starts far too early - 10:30am EST, which is 7:30am my time.  But the #5 is named Street Biz. I can't make this shit up folks. If for some reason you finds yourself at the race track or online wagering account at 7:30 in the morning, put a few bucks on #5 Street Biz.  $10 to Win.

Race 5 - 9:35am: This is the first of many stakes races on the day. Its a 5 Furlong sprint over the turf course. Now if it rains too much they will take this off the turf and run on dirt/mud. Small flyer on #3 Big World strictly as an action bet. Ex box with 4,5,8. $5 to Win. $1 ex box 3/4,5,8 = $6.

Race 6 - 10:17am: 4 YO Fillies going 1 1/8 on the main track. #8 Noble Bird plots on top, with some very nice pace ratings. The pace projects to be fast, but breaking from an outside post I think she may be able to sit just off the pace. Or, they may just gun to the lead depending on what the other speed does. $20 Win #8 Noble Bird and $2 exacta box 8/2,3,4,5. = $16. $1 Tri 8/2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5 = $12.

Race 7 - 11:00am: Another turf sprint. If it stays on the turf #4 Why Two is the play.  Its a wide open race so just a $10 Win on #4 Why Two.

Race 8 - 11:53am: Not much speed in the race, #10 Ghalia has nice pace numbers and will be the play. $20 Win #10 Ghalia. $2 Ex Box with 1,2,7,9,14 = $20.

Race 9 - 12:53pm: 1 1/16 for Optional Claimers on the main track.  The pace should be fast, so we will look for a closer. #8 General Downs has the best Late pace and will be a price. $20 Win #8 General Downs. $2 ex boxes with 3,4,9,12 = $16. 

Race 10 - 2:04pm: 3 YO Fillies on the turf in a GR 3 event. #9 Sweeping Paddy at a price to spring the upset. Can run above par and has the final time turf designation, always a good thing to have on the turf.  $20 Win #9 Sweeping Paddy, Ex boxes with 1,2,7,8,12 = $20. 

Race 11 - 3:12pm: The Gr1 Kentucky Oaks, 3YO Fillies going 1 1/8. There are 2 ways to look at this race. One is to acknowledge the sheer brilliance of the ML favorite #4 Paradise Woods. She has powerful numbers, and on sheer number power she is a clear and deserved favorite. But horse racing isn't always about picking the most likely winner, its about risk vs reward.

Now Paradise Woods may very well run off and win at around even money or 6/5. But there is also a fair chance she will not repeat that monster effort from her most recent. There are a couple horse that can pull off the upset. #13 Abel Tasman goes for HOF connections Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. They call him Big Money Mike for a reason, he wins a lot of big races and is the all time winningest Breeders' Cup jockey in history.  Look for her to come rolling late. #2 Lockdown is bred for an off track, and though a bit light on numbers she can definitely improve and fire a big shot. These 2 are the value of the race. Let's go $50 WP #13 Abel Tasman. $10 ex box 4/2,13 = $40. $5 ex 2,13/2,3,10,13,14 = $80. $1 Tri 2,13/3,4,10,14/2,13 = $8, $1 Tri 2,13/2,13/4,10,13,14 = $8. 

P3:
Race 5: 3,8 / 2,8 / 1,3,4,8,9,10,12 = $28
Race 6: 2,8 / 1,3,4,8,9,10,12 / 2,10,14 = $42
Race 7: 1,3,4,8,9,10,12 / 2,10,14 / 4,8 = $42
Race 8: 2,10,14 / 4,8,12 / 1,2,9,12 = $36
Race 9: 4,8,12 / 1,2,9,12 / 2,4,10,13 = $48
                     Total Cost= $196

P4:
Race 8: 2,10,14 / 4,8,12 / 1,2,9,12 / 2,4,10,13 = $72 (.50)

Win Bets:
Race 1 #5 Street Biz $10
Race 5: #3 Big World $5
Race 6: #8 Noble Bird $20
Race 7: #4 Why Two $10
Race 8: #10 Ghalia $20
Race 9: #8 General Downs $20
Race 10: #9 Sweeping Paddy $20
Race 11: #13 Abel Tasman $50 WP
                     Total: $205

Trifecta: $28

Exactas: $198


Total Cost $196 (P3) + $72 (P4) + $205 (WP) + $28 (TRI) + $198 (EX) = $699

So Investing nearly $700 on the entire card. I'll be back tomorrow night with a full update. Have a Great Day and Good Luck at the windows. The Races will be broadcast on NBCSN #220 on DTV and I believe 723 on Comcast starting at 9am PST.