Kentucky Derby Analysis 2017

Good morning folks, I hope many of you were with me yesterday.  We nailed that beautiful 9-1 shot winner in the Oaks, and were a short head away from a huge score. If only Lockdown could have run 2nd. 

Let's start with the Kentucky Derby. On big race days I use a performance figure called Thorograph which is the best product out there.  It isn't cheap, $25 per track with a daily cap of around $75. But the information is outstanding. I used it yesterday to score with Abel Tasman.  There is a ton of information out there during Derby week: This horse is working great, this one not, post position, can they get the distance, etc....

The horse that sticks out on Thorograph is #19 Practical Joke. Currently he is a very big price. Now I have a very well connected friend that tells me that this horse will not get the distance, and he heard this from people who should know. I don't want to say any more than that, it was confidential. But at 30-1 or more, I have to ignore that info simply because 1) The horse looks beautiful on the data and 2) The price is too big. If this horse wins and I don't have him because someone told me he can't get the distance......let's just say Biz won't be happy. So Win Bet on #19 Practical Joke and if he backs up in the stretch I can live with that. 

If we key PJ as a win bet, these are the 5 horses that look best on the data to also run well and complete your exactas and trifectas.

#2 Thunder Snow
#8 Hence
#10 Gunnevera
#14 Classic Empire
#15 McCracken
#16 Tapwrit
#17 Irish War Cry

The last 3 I mentioned will take some betting and be single digits, probably amongst the top 4 betting favorites. The other 2 will be prices.

Now I also heard some poor things about Gunnevera, a respected clocker told me she looks like shit and too toss her completely. He isn't bad on TG and is a use. I am in a quandary with this one, and will probably play underneath. Again, I would hate for the horse to hit the board since he is a use on TG, plus its a small price to pay. 

I am going to play the race this way:

WIN BET: #19 Practical Joke
Ex Box: 19/2,8,10,13,14,15,16
TRI: Key PJ on top and play the other 6 underneath, should cost $42 for a buck.

My daily reports that I use have Hence very strong so we will use him, not impossible on TG either. Tapwrit has some nice TG numbers use him. I know Pletcher has a history of doing poorly, but his horses that don't fire big before the Derby run much better than those that did. Classic Empire one of the favorites but I expect him to fire today, and McCracken has been my Derby horse for a month.  Beautiful pattern and he should also fire a shot today. Thunder Snow a bit slow but 1st Lasix and another with a nice pattern that can hit the board.  J Boys Echo has a strong number to run back to and if he does can be right there too. Throw in Gunnevera reluctantly.

I will be very curious to see how the 2 horses run that had negative comments from people in the know. 

If you want to play another horse for the Win, and don't trust PJ or just want to play two horses to Win, I would suggest a Win Bet on #15 McCracken.  He will be mid to upper single digits, but if I had to choose one horse that I fully expect to run their race today it would be McCracken. Reports are that he is thriving, training great, and the connections expect him to run huge. Traffic and/or a wide trip are all they are worried about.

For exactas/trifectas exchange McCracken with Practical Joke and make the same bets. 

I will post analysis on the undercard in a bit.  I wanted to get the Derby analysis done.  Check back in a bit, it will be on this post listed as an UPDATE.  

UNDERCARD - I will make this quick, no time for detailed analysis for every race.

Race 4:
#1 Caviar Czar: My buddy just called me he loves this horse today. Good enough win ticket 3/1 ML.

Race 5: 1,6,10,12. #6 a nice longshot play, while the #1 is very solid. #12 a pace play may steal on the front end.

Race 6: #6 Lightstream the play with an exacta with #7 Carina Mia. Playing against Finest City trying to beat the chalk.

Race 7: #6 Roca Rojo very strong, playing with 1,4.  The scratch of Miss Temple City may have sucked the value out of this race.

Race 8: #9 Excitations the Value Odds horse, play with 5,8,13.  If the #5 offers a square price that may be a nice horse to bet also. Its between those 2 for thew win. 

Race 9: #10 Good Samaritan the Late horse in a race with some pace. Play with 7,1,4,2. #1 Holiday Stone the Value Odds horse and a very square price.

Race 10: Wide open race. #2 Masochistic is the Spot Play horse and picked right on top. But he's 5/2 and too short for me. #1 Awesome Slew very strong at a 4/1 ML. #9 Limousine Liberal is the VO horse, second on my odds line, and offers by far the best value in the race. Not the most likely winner, but its not about picking winners, its getting value. 10/1 ML. Toss in 4,8,13 if you want to spread in exotics. 

Race 11: Wide open Turf Stakes. #4 Conquest Panthera the top rated VO horse. Play with 2,11,3,5.

Have a Great Day, enjoy the races, and have fun. Thanks for stopping by, and I hope I can put you on to a few winners.  Any questions leave a comment and I will respond asap. I will have my laptop open all day.